计算潜水蒸发系数的反Logistic公式

根据新疆叶尔羌河流域地下水均衡场裸地潜水蒸发的试验观测资料,提出了进行潜水蒸发系数计算的反Ｌｏｇｉｓｔｉｃ公式,同时采用可变多面体法对公式进行了非线性拟合。该公式较全面地反映了潜水蒸发系数的变化规律,简单实用,适于当地潜水蒸发量的估算     

Prediction of existing gully erosion in vineyard parcels of the NE Spain: a logistic modelling approach

This paper presents a study of determining factors and a method to predict the existence of gully erosion in vineyard parcels. The Alt Penedès-Anoia region (Catalonia, NE Spain), mainly dedicated to the cropping of vineyards for high quality wine production, was selected as the case study area. Single factors related to the existence of gully erosion were determined by means of statistical tests (Student's t-test and chi-square). The existence of gully erosion was predicted by means of a multivariate procedure. A stepwise selection of variables (relief, soil, land use/management characteristics) was performed, which allowed the identification of factors that present a significant relationship with the existence of gully erosion. The selected factors, slope degree and planar slope form, were considered as independent variables in a logistic regression of binary response. The model computes the probability that gullies exist in given vineyard parcels, and it can be implemented in a raster-based geographical information system (GIS). The assessment of the model in 52 parcels, different from the training data set, yielded an overall accuracy of 84.6%. The predictive model can be applied for areas with similar conditions, but the modelling approach can be applied in other different areas.     

旱涝对豫东地区冬小麦产量的影响评估

利用正交多项式等多种数学方法对豫东地区冬小麦产量的构成进行了分析,在此基础上用积分回归的方法建立了旬降水量与冬麦产量的回归方程,揭示了不同时期旱涝对产量的影响。根据豫东地区冬小麦生育期内各旬降水量影响系数,分析了该地区旬降水量对冬小麦生产影响的地区差异性。     

一种与材积相容的生物量模型

从生物量与材积的相容性出发,本研究构造了与材积相容的各分量生物量模型,用４ 个指标对新建生物量模型进行了评价并与ＣＡＲ模型进行比较．结果表明,新建生物量模型预估精度明显高于ＣＡＲ模型．     

Risk factors for Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica contamination in French broiler-chicken flocks at the end of the rearing period

Broiler-chicken are often Salmonella carriers. However, these bacteria are responsible for major food-borne human infection, in which poultry-meat products are frequently implicated. In order to prevent Salmonella spread during the slaughtering process, control measures should be implemented at the farm level to reduce the prevalence before slaughtering. The objective of this study was to identify the risk factors for Salmonella contamination in French commercial broiler flocks at the end of the rearing period. A prospective study was carried out in 1996 and 1997 on 86 broiler flocks located in western France. The Salmonella status of the flocks was assessed by means of litter swabs and dust samples analyzed with classical bacteriological methods. Sixty flocks (70%) had at least one contaminated environmental sample and were classified as Salmonella-contaminated flocks. Logistic regression was used to assess association of managerial practices, general hygiene and results of environmental Salmonella recovery, with the odds that the flock itself would be Salmonella-contaminated at the end of the rearing period. Salmonella contamination of the house before placing day-old chicks and the Salmonella contamination of day-old chicks were significantly related to Salmonella contamination of the flock at the end of the rearing period. The risk for Salmonella contamination of the flock was increased when feed trucks parked near the entrance of the change room and when feed meal, instead of small pellets, was provided at the start.     

提高软件成本估计精度的方法

提出了一种估计软件成本的新方法,该方法允许使用一个替代变量去代替变量事先无法知道的软件规模的准确值,并在替代变量已知的情况下,给出了软件成本的估计和置信区间。实践表明,该方法的成本估计值比传统的标准回归分析方法和ＣＯＣＯＭＯ方法更为精确。     

用近红外反射光谱技术测定精米粉样品表观直链淀粉含量的研究

 以约3 g精米粉为测试样品,研究了用近红外反射光谱（NIRS）技术测定稻米表观直链淀粉含量（AAC）的效果及影响校正的一些因素。对3种不同回归统计分析方法校正效果的差异比较表明,用修正的部分最小平方法（MPLS）、部分最小平方法（PLS）和主成分回归法（PCR）进行AAC校正时,校正标准误（SEC）、交叉检验标准误（SECV）和检验工作标准误［SEP（C）］均呈上升趋势,分别为0.83、1.75和1.09 (MPLS);1.73、1.98和1.74 (PLS)以及2.29、2.56和1.72 (PCR);相反,校正决定系数[WTBX]R[WTBZ]2和检验决定系数RSQ呈下降趋势,分别为0.983和0.91 (MLPS);0.927和0.84 (PLS)以及0.870和0.84 (PCR)。由此可见,用MPLS技术建立AAC回归方程效果最佳。而从两种校正群体选定方法对校正效果的结果看,用软件程序SELECT根据样品光谱特征选定的校正群体和用AAC测定值按比例选定的校正群体,在建立AAC回归方程时,前者的SEC、SECV和SEP（C）均比后者要小,而[WTBX]R[WTBZ]2和RSQ相仿,表明根据光谱特征选定校正群体效果略好。     

远洋捕捞渔船数量的预测

用回归分析法和水平法建立了远洋捕船数量的数学模型,并以此进行了定量预测,结果表明,远洋捞渔船数量发展的攻水平法模型与实际情况具有良好的拟合性。     

主成分──逐步回归法在近红外光谱定量分析中应用的研究

本文使用一种新的多元统计建模方法：主成分——逐步回归法,用于近红外光谱定量分析中,其预测精度接近偏最小二乘法．     

景观要素的分维数与其形状参数的二元线性回归模型

利用方格网法研究了景观要素的分线数（FD）与其形状参数的关系,并建立了分维数（FD）与长宽比（L／W）和面积周长比（A／P）的线性回归模型,讨论了该模型的景观生态学意义。